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Scenario Planning
Scenario planning helps you make strategic decisions that are robust under uncertainty. Rather than predicting the future,
you map out 2-4 plausible futures and test your strategic options against each one.
Load a worked example to see how it comes together.
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How to use this tool
1 — Set your context
Enter your organization, industry, and planning horizon. Write a sharp focal question — the strategic decision this exercise is designed to inform.
2 — Identify key uncertainties
List forces you genuinely cannot predict but that would significantly change your strategy. Rate each on Impact and Uncertainty, then assign two as your X and Y axes.
3 — Build 4 scenarios
Click Build Scenarios to generate your 2×2 matrix. Name each quadrant and write a narrative describing how the world looks in that future.
4 — Stress-test & find robust moves
Add your strategic options and score them across each scenario. Options that perform well in all scenarios are your robust moves — prioritise these.
Planning context
A sharp focal question keeps the scenario exercise grounded. It should reference a real strategic decision that depends on how the future unfolds.
Key uncertainties
List the forces whose future direction you genuinely cannot predict, but which would significantly change your strategy if they moved one way vs. another. Rate each on Impact (how much it would change your strategy) and Uncertainty (how hard it is to predict). Then mark the two highest-scoring forces as your X axis and Y axis — these become the dimensions of your scenario matrix.
Mark one uncertainty as the X axis (horizontal) and one as the Y axis (vertical) — choose the two with the highest combined impact and uncertainty.
Scenario matrix
Each quadrant represents a distinct possible future defined by where your two axis uncertainties land. Give each scenario a memorable name, write a narrative describing what that world looks like, and assign a probability weight. Names should be evocative — they will be used throughout the analysis to anchor the thinking.
Y Axis uncertainty
X Axis uncertainty
Probability weights should sum to 100%.
Total: 0%
Strategy stress-test
For each strategic option you are considering, assess how well it performs in each scenario. G = thrives or remains viable · A = survives but sub-optimal · R = fails or causes serious harm. Options that score Green across all scenarios are your robust choices.
Import options from Strategic Options Evaluator, or add manually
Strategic conclusions
01
Robust moves — good in any scenario
Which actions or investments deliver value regardless of which scenario unfolds? These are your no-regret moves — prioritize them.
02
Scenario-specific bets
Which options only make sense in one or two scenarios? Be explicit about what would need to be true for you to pursue them.
03
The scenario we are implicitly betting on
Be honest — your current strategy reflects an implicit view of the future. Which scenario does it assume? Is that assumption defensible?
04
What would cause us to change direction?
What specific observable signals would tell you that a different scenario is materializing — and what would you do differently in response?
05
Options to preserve — keep doors open
What low-cost moves can you make now that preserve optionality for multiple scenarios, without committing fully to any one path?
06
Overall strategic stance given uncertainty
Given the scenario analysis, what is your recommended strategic stance? How should uncertainty shape your investment pace and commitment level?
Early indicators — what to watch
Define the specific, observable signals that would tell you which scenario is materializing. These become your strategic monitoring agenda.
| Indicator to watch | Points toward | Check frequency | What it means if it triggers |
|---|
Data is saved automatically. Use Export PDF to generate a full scenario planning report.
Save to File
.json will be added automatically